(authors: S. D. Bosanac, Z. Uvalić, O. Božić, I. Kekez, T. Grubeša, S. Arsovski, Ž. Bačić)
General
There are three main sectors of Space activities: commercial uses of LEO, non-commercial uses of LEO and Deep Space.
Commercial use of LEO is mainly driven by private sector in the area of communication, EO and military use. The other commercial uses of LEO are less significant. As the result large stakeholders, states, are getting involved and as result LEO is becoming rapidly clogged by small bodies and become danger for space travel and science research from Earth. The world accord will be needed soon to control the number of commercial launches into LEO which is counterproductive for private sector. The future of private sector inevitable shall stabilise around a steady state and new initiatives will be harder to establish. Private sector in Europe is slow to respond to such initiatives and it is difficult to envisage its future, the reasons are open for discussion. Regional imbalance in space science and technology of Europe is a big hurdle not only in private sector but in general in European space activities. Establishment of space technology centres in less developed regions would be greatly beneficial for attracting young people with fresh ideas.
In the non-commercial uses of LEO the prime investors are the tax payers, but also regulation is needed that private sector in the commercial uses of LEO must contribute towards their use of Space, after all Space is for the benefit of life on Earth and not fief. There are several non-commercial uses of LEO, in most cases technology is at its top but little new breakthrough developments are envisaged, except in the cleaning up debris and space defence. Development of in space propulsion systems, energy storage, new materials, fuel storage systems are all elements for efficient manoeuvring in LEO as the necessity for the activities and the springboard for Deep Space. Investment in science and technology is the prerequisite but implementation is through public-private partnerships. There is a need for large space station, Europe could be the initiator of the idea but would require collaboration of all stakeholders in world.
Deep Space with humans involved is where most of developments in science and technology is needed. It is a very expensive project, and it is a collaborative project on the world scale, it is wasting of resources, both financially and in development, having several independent projects of this kind. However, going into Deep Space requires well defined objectives. Establishing settlements or mining for the needs on Earth are out of questions, more realistic objective is doing science and technology development. There are already two Deep Space programs in the making, Europe could be the leader in defining the objectives and bring together the two programs to implement it, but mainly to be the leader in some of the segments of the Deep Space program. The number of challenges for realising Deep Space program is almost limitless.
Few points for discussion
Weak segment of Europe is the launching capability but following the crisis years 2024 is a pivotal year unveiling its new generation of launchers with Ariane 6 having launched successfully the Sentinel 2C and with Vega C coming at the end of this year. Europe is geting out of the launcher crisis.
Europe has regained some of its strategic autonomy in some of the technological domains, but it is worth comparing Europe with the United States and China, although for the latter we do not have financial figures.
Europe invests about one sixth from the public sector in space, USA invests about six times as much. In 2023 the global public investment figure in space is about 108 billion Euros, 64% of this is in the United States and 11% in Europe. Public investment in space per capita, in the USA is about 220 Euros per person, in Europe it is about 20 Euros. Out of this in the United States about 65% of the public investment is used for defence and security in Europe it is about 12%. It is expectation that the European budget on space defence will increase, but this is a political decision, not that of ESA or the industry. Also, in broadband internet (e.g. starlink) Europe is on the verge of building up its own activity. IRIS2 is about to be initiated but still Europeans must catch up. Starlink dominance, and new competitors are in making, in world market can be alleviated only by major investment in European space industry to stand in international competition.
European technological advances in space industry are among the best in the world but it is too small compared to the acceleration that takes place worldwide. For example, the global space economy today is about 470 billion euros including also the services segment, and it is growing by about 15%. Unfortunately, most of this growth happens in the US and in China whilst Europe is stagnant. That is a huge risk because today space is just too important as an element of daily life, but much more in the future.
European space sector needs investments by public and private sector. The public investment in the United States goes into NASA and space companies like SpaceX. The success of these companies is mainly due to NASA by providing both technical expertise (e.g. building up the Falcon rocket) and finances. NASA also played the role of the anchor customer and therefore buying rocket launches either from SpaceX or the others. There is also much bigger dimension that must be dealt with in Europe, need to keep all our talents in Europe and prevent them from going to Silicon Valley by creating programs that keep European talents in Europe. This can only be done by investing and making sure that we have the right boundary conditions but also the right projects and keep Europeans here.
Europe should build up its own capability to be more autonomous and have its own capability of bringing European astronauts to the Moon but as the first step Europeans must be working closely with the other world stakeholders, NASA and CNSA.
ESA launched a charter “zero debris” and more than half of the ESA member states who have signed it. Once the charter is signed the satellite operator promises that at the end of the life of satellite, they do not leave it in space, they remove it from space. Just like going to National Park you take your food in a lunch box, eat your lunch but you do not leave waste behind. However, over population of National Parks is destroyed by too many visitors, despite “not leaving the lunch boxes behind”. National Park Plitvice in Croatia cannot be visited without signing up for a date, number of visitors is limited, which is the very essence of preserving the ecology of the system.
